北朝鮮情勢、恐ろしいステップへの警告(Warning for the terrifying step on North Korea) ②

If Trump is ready to trade away America’s military presence in South Korea even before sitting down with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, he may offer the concession regardless of what the dictator puts on the table in return.
But that would be a grave mistake for the following reasons:
First, it would significantly increase North Korea’s ability to threaten South Korea’s security. North Korea has long wanted to reunify the Korean peninsula under its control. Admiral Harry Harris, the top US commander in the Pacific who has been nominated to be ambassador to South Korea, told Congress that this is Kim’s primary goal.
もしトランプが、朝鮮民主主義人民共和国(北朝鮮)の金正日(キム・ジョンイル)首席代表と座っていなくても、韓国での米軍の駐留を切り離す準備ができていれば、彼は 譲歩を提供することもできるかもしれないが、

Even without its nuclear arsenal, North Korea has thousands of artillery cannons and rocket launchers in striking distance of Seoul and, analysts says, could fire more than 300,000 rounds within the first hour of a conflict. But while North Korea has periodically engaged in military provocations with the South, it hasn’t launched a full-scale invasion since 1950 because American troops are too great a deterrent. If US forces were to withdraw, Kim could attempt to overwhelm South Korea in a quick attack — and he probably wouldn’t even have to use nuclear weapons to do it.

Second, withdrawing American troops from South Korea would be a significant win for China with implications well beyond the Korean Peninsula. China views all of East Asia as its sphere of influence and wants a free hand to pursue its territorial ambitions in the South and East China Seas. According to the Cipher Brief, a digital, security-based platform, China’s military has been enhancing its array of anti-access and area-denial capabilities, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles, to make it harder for American forces to operate in the region. If Trump were to pull American troops out of South Korea, it would remove a key counter-balance to China’s growing power and increase Beijing’s leverage.
第二に、韓国からの米軍撤収は、朝鮮半島をはるかに超える意味で、中国にとって大きな勝利となるだろう。中国は東アジアのすべてをその影響範囲とみなし、南と東シナ海での領土的野心を追求する自由な手を求めている。中国の軍隊は、デジタルセキュリティベースのプラットフォームであるCipher Briefによると、反艦弾道ミサイルなどの反アクセスと地域拒否能力を強化し、米軍の領域内オペレーション能力を 難しくしてしまう。もしトランプが米軍を韓国から引き抜くならば、中国の力強い成長力へのカウンターバランスキーを手放し、北京勢力を増強するだろう。

Finally, making such a major concession would establish a dangerous precedent. Even under the best-case scenario, where negotiations with North Korea lead to a credible agreement to dismantle its nuclear weapons, Trump needs to be careful about the benefits he is willing to give Kim in return. It’s like negotiating with terrorists or hostage-takers. The US should not signal to other rogue regimes that nuclear blackmail is the best way to extract major concessions from us. That would likely lead to an arms race, with more countries seeking to follow North Korea’s example.

So far, the administration has offered little clarity about what Trump is willing to trade away in exchange for a deal on North Korea’s nuclear program. Withdrawing US troops from South Korea shouldn’t be on the list.

Editor’s Note:
YJ Fischer served at the State Department from 2012-2016. She co-wrote the 2016 Democratic Party platform and served on the Clinton-Kaine transition team. The views expressed in this commentary are her own.